2024 US Presidential Election – What do the exit polls tell us about why Trump won?
Going into the election, the Democrats were confident that women would come out in considerable numbers and vote for Kamala Harris. Women did turn out and in fact 53% voted for Harris. However, this was down on the percentage of women who had voted for Biden in 2020. More interestingly, if we go deeper into the voting figures, we can see that whilst Harris secured the vote of 91% of black women and 60% of Latino women, she fared less well amongst white women, gaining just 45% of their vote. This was a serious problem for Harris given that white women constituted 37% of those who voted in the election. In due course, the Democrats will have to answer some serious questions about how, in an election in which abortion rights and Trump’s comment and behaviour towards women led so many to assume that this core group would vote for Harris, in fact broke for the former President, with 53% of white women doing so.
Gender and race also played a big part for Trump. He captured the vote of 60% of white men, a group that makes up 34% of those who voted. The biggest turn around was amongst Latino men. 55% of Latino men voted for Trump, compared to just 38% of Latino women. A growing suggestion was that Trump’s macho appeal and his reaching out to ‘bro’ podcasters and figures such as the CEO of the UFC, Dana White helped to win over this group.
Perhaps the groups discussed above are more likely to be less well educated. This was a core group who gave their vote to Trump. 57% of Americans have no college degree and of this group 56% voted for Trump. The Democrats were once the party of the working man, they appear to have now lost this group conclusively. If there is any way back for the Democrats, they must find a way to appeal to those who have never attended college.
Exits polls have also suggested that perhaps Harris was too associated with the Biden administration to effectively suggest she could bring change. When presented with four qualities, 1. has the ability to lead, 2. cares about people like me, 3. has good judgement and 4. can bring about change, Harris won overwhelming on 2 and 3. However, 28% of voters said that the most important quality was that they could bring about change. Of these voters, 74% voted for Trump.
We heard a lot about abortion rights being a key factor in the election. But according to voters, this really wasn’t the case. In fact, just 14% said it was the most important factor. Harris won this group convincingly (74%). The issue that mattered to most voters was the state of democracy (34%) and Harris won this group also with 80% given her their vote. Trump spent most of his campaign focused on the economy, an issue which 32% of voters said was most important. He was right to do so as 80% of these voters gave him their vote. To be fair, Harris didn’t spend too much time discussing abortion rights, which suggests she judged the mood of voters well. It probably means that she needed to do much more to talk up her plan for the economy and to distance herself or at least provide a more robust defence of Biden’s Presidency.
Therefore, in reality, the most important issue going into this election was the economy. From the outside, it appeared that the US economy has prospered in the last four years, experiencing the kind of growth that those in Europe could only dream of. Growth may have occurred, but it was not felt by most Americans. Exit polls have suggested that 68% of those who voted described the US economy as not so good or poor. Of this group, 70% voted for Donald Trump. Similarly, 46% of Americans said that they were worse off today than they had been four years ago. 81% of this group voted for Trump. The economy was undoubtedly the deciding factor in the 2024 election.
