Does a Vice Presidential pick have any impact upon voting?
The Vice-Presidential picks of both Donald Trump and Kamala Harris have been met with very different reactions, with polls suggesting that Harris’ pick of Tim Waltz has been met more favourably than that of Trump’s pick, JD Vance.
The USA Today/Suffolk University poll has found that Tim Waltz perceived as favourable by 48% of voters compared to just 37% who found JD Vance favourable. Perhaps more importantly, 9% of Republicans said that they found Walz favourable compared with just 6% of Democrats who said the same about Vance.
Will this have any impact upon voting in November? Probably not. In fact, following growing concern over JD Vance, Trump himself said that ‘nobody votes for the vice president’.
However, there are ways in which the Vice-Presidential pick can help to improve the chances of their Presidential nominee:
- Does the Vice-Presidential pick fill in the gaps or obvious weaknesses that the presidential candidate may have? For example, in 2008, some voters may have been concerned by the inexperience of the Democratic Presidential candidate, Barack Obama. Some were also concerned that he wouldn’t be able to work effectively with Congress and that he lacked foreign policy expertise. Obama helped to ease these concerns by nominating Joe Biden as his Vice President. Biden had been a Senator for 36 years and had been chairman of the Foreign Relations Committee, thus allowing voters to feel confident that the Obama would have the support of a more experienced wingman if he were to get their vote.
- They can bring energy to the campaign. Again, Joe Biden was an excellent pick by Obama, bringing joyful energy to his campaign. On the other hand, Hillary Clinton’s Vice-Presidential pick, Tim Paine did not. His stilted speaking style didn’t really help convince people who were already sceptical of Clinton that she represented something fresh. Similarly, in 2008, Republican nominee, John McCain’s pick of Sarah Palin as his Vice-Presidential candidate was disastrous. McCain, a serious and respected politician, chose Palin who appeared disorganised and less intellectual assured than might be expected. Given that McCain was 72 years old, some voters were decidedly concerned about a Vice Presidential nominee whom could easily step into the top job if anything happened to McCain.
How does Waltz fit into both of these?
Waltz certainly fills in some of the gaps in Kamala Harris’ CV. Whilst Harris is seen as a Californian establishment type figure, Waltz is a local, small town folksy type guy, the type of character traditional Republicans might be attracted to. Waltz’s CV solidifies this further, having served in the army reserve for 20 years then working as a teacher and football coach. Waltz therefore brings a very normal, down to earth, human side to the Harris ticket.
Waltz has also brought more energy to the campaign. His use of the term ‘weird’ to describe the Republican campaign has struck a chord and is now being used as a repeated attack line by Democrats. Waltz’s attacks on Trump and the Republican party have proved effective because they use language that doesn’t demonise them or their supporters but instead suggests that they have the wrong priorities.
Does it matter?
As mentioned previously, in reality, the Vice Presidential pick has limited impact upon voter preference. Nothing illustrates this better than the 1988 election, when the Democratic Vice Presidential nominee, Lloyd Bentsen, famously wiped the floor with the Republican nominee Dan Quayle in the Vice Presidential debate, delivering the most viral of putdowns.
It had no impact. The Republicans won the election comfortably.
